PHI beat MIN 7–5. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rasmus Ristolainen scored at 17:36 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 51% to 93%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:18 |  PHI | Sean Couturier from Rasmus Ristolainen, Travis Konecny | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:51 | PHI | Nick Seeler from Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P2 14:54 | MIN | Brock Faber from Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–2 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 15:27 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Declan Chisholm | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:16 | PHI | Matvei MichkovPP from Sean Couturier, Owen Tippett | 2–3 | 54% → 76% |
| P2 19:56 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy | 3–3 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 2:18 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Zach Bogosian, Jonas Brodin | 4–3 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 4:55 | PHI | Travis KonecnyPP from Morgan Frost, Owen Tippett | 4–4 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 8:26 | PHI | Sean Couturier from Travis Konecny, Nick Seeler | 4–5 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 13:28 | MIN | Jake Middleton unassisted | 5–5 | 14% → 49% |
| P3 17:36 | PHI | Rasmus Ristolainen from Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny | 5–6 | 51% → 93% |
| P3 19:00 | PHI | Sean CouturierEN from Noah Cates, Travis Sanheim | 5–7 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:34 | 2 | +1.51 | −0.01 | +1.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 26:48 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.03 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 19:37 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.08 | +0.88 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.10 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.02 |
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:10 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:41 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:59 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 6:46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 14:15 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 12:50 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 7:46 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 8:25 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:26 | −0.20 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 17:50 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:36 | 2 | −0.43 | +0.05 | −0.48 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:45 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 18:00 | −0.46 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 22:58 | 1 | −1.06 | −0.16 | −0.75 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 58:16 | −3.37 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Couturier C | 17:32 | 3 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.34 | +1.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Matvei Michkov R | 17:45 | 1 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.35 | +0.85 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nick Seeler D | 18:39 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.24 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 25:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.06 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Travis Konecny R | 19:45 | 1 | 4 | +0.72 | +0.32 | +0.40 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyson Foerster R | 11:54 | +0.29 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 18:16 | +0.12 | +0.31 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 27:49 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 17:37 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 14:12 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 11:00 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Noah Cates L | 7:52 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 6:18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 14:41 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:02 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 14:34 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 15:59 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 15:14 | −0.49 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 59:44 | −2.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.