WPG beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers scored on the power play at 1:26 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Joey Daccord allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:27 |  SEA | Matty Beniers unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:56 |  WPG | Nino Niederreiter from Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 15:05 | WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 4:21 | WPG | Nino Niederreiter from Cole Perfetti, Neal Pionk | 3–1 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 11:01 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Jared McCann, Matty Beniers | 3–2 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 16:38 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Brandon Montour, Jared McCann | 3–3 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 1:26 | WPG | Nikolaj EhlersPP from Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nino Niederreiter R | 12:06 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.02 | +1.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:11 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.04 | +0.69 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 13:28 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 14:49 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 11:35 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 10:53 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 11:07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 20:36 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 19:48 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 27:36 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:44 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:28 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:52 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:19 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:30 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 21:28 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 14:15 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:19 | −0.52 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matty Beniers C | 18:23 | 2 | 1 | +1.80 | +0.10 | +1.69 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:26 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.16 | +0.43 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:13 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 17:48 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 10:30 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 17:50 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 12:55 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 20:23 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 26:52 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:02 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:06 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:55 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:51 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:56 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:31 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 8:46 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 21:51 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:20 | −0.46 | −0.03 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 61:06 | −1.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.