CGY beat PIT 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 3.3, CGY 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nazem Kadri scored on the power play at 19:17 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 5% to 51%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:48 |  CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Justin Kirkland, Ryan Lomberg | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 6:31 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 2:32 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Kevin Hayes, Matt Grzelcyk | 2–1 | 49% → 74% |
| P3 7:46 | CGY | MacKenzie Weegar from Daniil Miromanov, Blake Coleman | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 13:40 | PIT | Noel Acciari from Cody Glass, Marcus Pettersson | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 19:17 | CGY | Nazem KadriPP from Blake Coleman, Rasmus Andersson | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 23:12 | 1 | +1.49 | −0.11 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 13:32 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.14 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 14:39 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.13 | +0.61 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 9:03 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:33 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:54 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 16:49 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 16:27 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 14:55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 9:53 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 12:56 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:06 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 10:52 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 15:49 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 15:51 | −0.56 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:23 | 1 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.39 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:59 | −0.76 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:07 | −0.84 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 65:00 | −1.78 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:20 | 1 | 1 | +1.75 | +0.13 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 |
| Justin Kirkland C | 14:28 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +1.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 26:09 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.15 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:44 | +0.35 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.60 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 21:54 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.41 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 22:33 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.09 | −0.49 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:11 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 6:55 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 15:29 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 16:03 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:20 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 13:11 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Daniil Miromanov D | 15:45 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 22:11 | −0.20 | +0.21 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:32 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 10:22 | −0.65 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:58 | −0.66 | +0.00 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 19:28 | −1.00 | +0.02 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 63:55 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.