NYI beat MTL 4–3 in a shootout. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 17:50 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Semyon Varlamov saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:32 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 16:58 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Noah Dobson, Maxim Tsyplakov | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P1 19:56 |  MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Mike Matheson, Juraj Slafkovský | 1–2 | 15% → 28% |
| P2 0:59 | MTL | Logan Mailloux from Jake Evans, Josh Anderson | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 15:24 | NYI | Anders Lee from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech | 2–3 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 17:50 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 14:36 | 2 | +1.17 | +0.04 | +1.46 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 11:32 | +1.02 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.02 | +1.01 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 10:36 | +0.86 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 14:33 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:50 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:45 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 19:03 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Justin Barron D | 22:21 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:36 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:51 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.39 | |
| Jake Evans C | 19:14 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 28:10 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Joel Armia R | 16:00 | −0.59 | −0.04 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 12:14 | −0.62 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 15:57 | 2 | −0.64 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 13:47 | −0.77 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 24:10 | −1.02 | +0.00 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 65:00 | +0.53 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:17 | 1 | +2.26 | +0.12 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:57 | +1.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 29:24 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.33 | −0.51 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Anders Lee C | 18:25 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.16 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 25:47 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.32 | +0.59 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:07 | +0.27 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 26:29 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.30 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Julien Gauthier R | 7:42 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 14:33 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 15:14 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 9:46 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 17:39 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:13 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:57 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:12 | −0.40 | +0.30 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:41 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.15 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 17:41 | 1 | −0.71 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 21:08 | −1.15 | −0.18 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 64:16 | +1.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.