WSH beat NJD 6–5 in overtime. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tom Wilson scored at 4:00 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:45 |  NJD | Erik Haula from Stefan Noesen, Tomas Tatar | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:01 |  WSH | Tom Wilson from Connor McMichael | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 10:14 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Tom Wilson, Jakob Chychrun | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:18 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from John Carlson, Dylan Strome | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 0:34 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Stefan Noesen | 3–2 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 0:44 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Timo Meier | 3–3 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 9:15 | WSH | Andrew Mangiapane from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Aliaksei Protas | 4–3 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 12:33 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Trevor van Riemsdyk | 5–3 | 69% → 85% |
| P3 3:39 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Nico Hischier, Timo Meier | 5–4 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 12:28 | NJD | Dougie HamiltonPP from Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier | 5–5 | 18% → 51% |
| OT 4:00 | WSH | Tom Wilson from Dylan Strome, Jakob Chychrun | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson R | 17:51 | 2 | 1 | +1.64 | +0.10 | +1.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Strome C | 19:04 | 1 | 2 | +0.92 | +0.15 | +0.76 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:59 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.08 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 16:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.19 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:29 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.10 | +0.38 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 9:39 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:09 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:49 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 7:00 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 22:10 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 28:13 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:52 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 16:13 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 18:08 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 16:22 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 8:19 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 16:25 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 27:27 | 2 | −0.69 | −0.21 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 63:38 | −1.12 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 21:21 | 2 | 1 | +1.28 | +0.20 | +1.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:54 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:58 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.24 | +0.52 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:00 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.08 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:18 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Seamus Casey D | 7:35 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 20:50 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 26:17 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 12:25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 20:28 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 19:10 | 3 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 25:24 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 11:17 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 17:57 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 11:37 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:04 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:11 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:14 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.00 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 64:00 | −2.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.