COL beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 6.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon scored at 4:19 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Lukas Dostal saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:05 |  ANA | Leo Carlsson unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:36 | ANA | Ryan Strome from Brian Dumoulin | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 0:57 | COL | Casey Mittelstadt from Nikolai Kovalenko, Cale Makar | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P3 0:35 | COL | Ross ColtonPP from Casey Mittelstadt, Mikko Rantanen | 2–2 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 11:42 | COL | Ross Colton from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–3 | 52% → 85% |
| P3 19:47 | ANA | Troy TerryPP from Olen Zellweger | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 4:19 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 17:11 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.29 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 17:20 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.27 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.24 | +0.43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 17:02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:22 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:41 | −0.15 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 9:10 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:45 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 10:11 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tristan Luneau D | 16:13 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:46 | −0.33 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:28 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 21:39 | −0.39 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:47 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:07 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 15:23 | −0.55 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:45 | −0.56 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:52 | −0.66 | −0.03 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 61:25 | +2.07 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Colton C | 21:54 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.81 | +0.91 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 18:01 | +0.77 | +0.59 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 24:28 | +0.52 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.80 | −0.28 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.05 |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 21:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:27 | 3 | +0.39 | +0.78 | −0.50 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 19:33 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 18:47 | +0.18 | +0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 16:14 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 13:18 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:19 | −0.05 | +0.35 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Ludvig D | 11:51 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:45 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.34 | −0.47 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:33 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 13:43 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Stienburg C | 5:16 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 14:53 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 8:24 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 64:19 | −0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.