STL beat NYI 1–0 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Neighbours scored at 2:04 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joel Hofer saved 2.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 2:04 |  STL | Jake Neighbours from Philip Broberg, Joel Hofer | 0–1 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Pelech D | 22:49 | +0.26 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:16 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 13:34 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:31 | +0.01 | +0.28 | −0.31 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:27 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:38 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 9:47 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 15:01 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:22 | −0.13 | +0.24 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 8:30 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:29 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 21:37 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 14:58 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 17:30 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 17:51 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 13:49 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:35 | −0.53 | −0.02 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 62:04 | +1.90 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:44 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.15 | +0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Kessel D | 11:58 | +0.14 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:10 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 22:01 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 11:37 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 9:57 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 10:51 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 14:13 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 26:30 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 25:10 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:58 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 18:06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:58 | −0.27 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:03 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:03 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:34 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 22:59 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.46 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 20:20 | −0.61 | −0.08 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 62:04 | +2.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.