ANA beat UTA 5–4 in overtime. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Leo Carlsson scored at 0:54 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Connor Ingram allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:40 |  ANA | Troy Terry from Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:54 |  UTA | Jack McBain from Mikhail Sergachev, Michael Kesselring | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 13:25 | UTA | Barrett HaytonPP from Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Guenther | 2–1 | 48% → 64% |
| P2 8:06 | ANA | Robby Fabbri from Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 16:52 | ANA | Pavel Mintyukov from Brian Dumoulin, Mason McTavish | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 5:21 | UTA | Michael Kesselring from Jack McBain, Josh Doan | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 10:50 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz | 4–3 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 14:55 | ANA | Pavel Mintyukov from Brock McGinn, Leo Carlsson | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 0:54 | ANA | Leo Carlsson unassisted | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kesselring D | 21:58 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.18 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:08 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.12 | |
| Jack McBain C | 13:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:46 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.14 | +0.61 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 10:14 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:52 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 14:54 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 12:17 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:25 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 10:02 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:45 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 22:30 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 13:00 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.43 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:10 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 24:46 | −0.34 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:59 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:07 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:48 | 2 | −0.61 | −0.16 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:54 | −1.42 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:55 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.04 | +1.60 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.42 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.06 |
| Troy Terry R | 18:18 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.20 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 17:23 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.16 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 18:08 | +0.39 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:15 | +0.34 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 10:04 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:49 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 19:25 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 11:18 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:45 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 18:39 | −0.25 | +0.16 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tristan Luneau D | 13:51 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 12:58 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 18:49 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 12:49 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:01 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:50 | −0.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.