PIT beat BUF 6–5 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored on the power play at 1:38 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:43 |  BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:08 | BUF | Jordan Greenway from Jason Zucker | 2–0 | 62% → 75% |
| P1 11:01 |  PIT | Bryan RustPP from Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P1 11:33 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Bowen Byram, Alex Tuch | 3–1 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 9:12 | PIT | Drew O'ConnorSH from Noel Acciari | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 15:20 | PIT | Jesse Puljujarvi from Lars Eller, Drew O'Connor | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 3:26 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Sidney Crosby | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 10:16 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Henri Jokiharju | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 10:56 | BUF | Ryan McLeod from Bowen Byram, Jason Zucker | 5–4 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 19:14 | PIT | Rickard RakellPP from Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin | 5–5 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 1:38 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin | 5–6 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 18:48 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.11 | +1.20 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 18:37 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.21 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:34 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:45 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.27 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 17:32 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 21:09 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 20:27 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:40 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 8:59 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 12:27 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 9:44 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:51 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 18:51 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:28 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.41 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Owen Power D | 19:08 | −0.48 | −0.34 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:27 | 2 | −0.50 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 10:28 | −0.54 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:58 | −0.59 | −0.10 | −0.48 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 61:38 | −0.98 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew O'Connor L | 13:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.13 | +0.85 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:32 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.22 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:02 | 1 | 2 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.45 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 13:22 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.04 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 22:51 | 1 | 3 | +0.39 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.04 |
| Lars Eller C | 13:58 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.01 | |
| Kris Letang D | 23:41 | +0.23 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 13:27 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 21:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:29 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 10:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.25 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 10:09 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 20:55 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 14:42 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:37 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.15 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 8:18 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 16:17 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:09 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist G | 49:00 | +0.40 |
| Tristan Jarry G | 11:33 | −2.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.