MIN beat STL 4–1. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jakub Lauko scored short-handed at 7:52 of the second, moving MIN’s win probability from 67% to 83%. Filip Gustavsson saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:50 | MIN | Ryan HartmanPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 7:52 | MIN | Jakub LaukoSH from Marat Khusnutdinov, Jonas Brodin | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P3 0:46 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov | 3–0 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 10:10 |  STL | Mathieu Joseph from Zachary Bolduc, Philip Broberg | 3–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 19:51 | MIN | Filip GustavssonEN unassisted | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Lauko C | 9:20 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.09 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.09 | +0.36 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brock Faber D | 24:54 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:35 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 27:59 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 14:20 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Liam Ohgren L | 12:32 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:14 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daemon Hunt D | 8:01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:44 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 12:13 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 14:08 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:43 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:52 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:44 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:18 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 21:48 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 17:56 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +1.67 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:58 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.05 | +0.40 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:45 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 16:26 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 18:05 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 14:25 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 11:28 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:40 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:57 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 13:38 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:30 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:30 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 22:49 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 10:59 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:48 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:48 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 15:44 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:46 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:15 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:16 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.