CGY beat EDM 4–1. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Mantha scored at 7:06 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Dan Vladar saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:16 |  EDM | Jeff Skinner from Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 7:30 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson unassisted | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 7:06 | CGY | Anthony Mantha from Martin Pospisil, Rasmus Andersson | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 9:27 | CGY | Justin Kirkland from Kevin Bahl, Rasmus Andersson | 3–1 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 19:36 | CGY | Connor ZaryEN unassisted | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:58 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Kirkland C | 9:29 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:38 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.09 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 13:47 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 23:51 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 15:30 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:27 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 14:38 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 10:28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 11:24 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil Miromanov D | 16:09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:41 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 20:31 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:46 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 20:14 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:51 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 15:58 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:40 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | +1.18 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:38 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.10 | +0.56 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 14:58 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 14:49 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:17 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 13:35 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 14:36 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 25:57 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 15:20 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 11:55 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:11 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:28 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:36 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.07 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 16:57 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:32 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 7:14 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:39 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 20:27 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.14 | −0.48 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 19:02 | −0.67 | −0.13 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 57:49 | −0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.