SEA beat MIN 5–4 in a shootout. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jared McCann scored on the power play at 16:34 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 9% to 49%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:22 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:06 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 1:46 |  SEA | Jordan Eberle from Jared McCann, Brandon Montour | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 8:15 | SEA | Jordan EberlePP from Andre Burakovsky, Vince Dunn | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 1:41 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Marco Rossi, Brock Faber | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 2:47 | SEA | Tye Kartye from Brandon Tanev, Yanni Gourde | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 12:33 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Matt Boldy, Jared Spurgeon | 3–4 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 16:34 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Ryker Evans, Andre Burakovsky | 4–4 | 9% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:33 | 2 | +2.45 | +0.11 | +1.55 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.78 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.08 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Tye Kartye L | 10:35 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 17:08 | +0.60 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:28 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 17:02 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.25 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 12:54 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 15:27 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:30 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 16:50 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 18:12 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 20:00 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 16:02 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:45 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 25:56 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:25 | −0.58 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:28 | −0.58 | −0.10 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 64:45 | −0.10 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:50 | 1 | 1 | +1.41 | +0.37 | +0.29 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.66 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.50 | +0.19 | +0.41 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:13 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.17 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 23:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.11 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Jake Middleton D | 20:13 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 12:08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 13:49 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 11:03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:33 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 28:20 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 11:44 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:57 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:45 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:49 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 10:03 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:53 | −0.42 | −0.33 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:44 | 2 | −0.45 | +0.26 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 64:34 | −2.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.