UTA beat NYI 5–4 in overtime. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 2:18 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Semyon Varlamov allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:10 |  NYI | Anthony DuclairPP from Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 19:01 |  UTA | Lawson CrousePP from Matias Maccelli, Logan Cooley | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 13:07 | UTA | Barrett Hayton from Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 1:03 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Anthony Duclair, Noah Dobson | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 6:52 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel PageauSH from Simon Holmstrom | 2–3 | 51% → 80% |
| P3 7:37 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP from Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 17:53 | NYI | Maxim Tsyplakov from Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri | 3–4 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 18:06 | UTA | Josh Doan from Alexander Kerfoot, Lawson Crouse | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 2:18 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Sean Durzi, Logan Cooley | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther R | 12:58 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.24 | +1.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.16 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Doan R | 10:58 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.15 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:39 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:59 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 25:28 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.54 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 17:40 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 12:14 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.47 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 18:05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 10:40 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 14:53 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:06 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.20 | −0.50 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:20 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:00 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:41 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:58 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:46 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 62:18 | −0.83 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 19:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.26 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:05 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.17 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 20:44 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.21 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 20:46 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.34 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 21:01 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 13:53 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 13:32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 12:13 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 12:01 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.07 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 10:52 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:51 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:09 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:51 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:46 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.27 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 14:26 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 17:58 | −0.45 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:53 | 1 | −0.81 | +0.02 | −0.64 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 62:18 | −1.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.