CGY beat VAN 6–5 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.7, VAN 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Connor Zary scored at 1:33 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Arturs Silovs allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:40 |  VAN | Daniel SprongPP from Filip Hronek, Danton Heinen | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 11:48 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Jake DeBrusk, Elias Pettersson | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 12:16 | VAN | Conor Garland from Nils Hoglander, Aatu Räty | 0–3 | 84% → 91% |
| P1 15:49 |  CGY | Anthony ManthaSH unassisted | 1–3 | 7% → 15% |
| P1 17:18 | VAN | Brock Boeser from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 1–4 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 17:01 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Nazem Kadri, Andrei Kuzmenko | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 2:41 | CGY | Martin Pospisil from Anthony Mantha, Kevin Bahl | 3–4 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 8:16 | CGY | MacKenzie WeegarPP from Connor Zary, Nazem Kadri | 4–4 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 10:40 | CGY | Jonathan Huberdeau from Brayden Pachal, Jake Bean | 5–4 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 18:23 | VAN | J.T. MillerPP from Quinn Hughes | 5–5 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 1:33 | CGY | Connor Zary from Martin Pospisil, Rasmus Andersson | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Pospisil C | 15:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.23 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:19 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.70 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Connor Zary C | 18:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.33 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:33 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.15 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil Miromanov D | 17:47 | +0.25 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:54 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 1:03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:16 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 18:19 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 18:11 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:50 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 15:22 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:53 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:19 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 13:11 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 8:48 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 61:33 | −2.30 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 18:21 | 2 | +1.21 | −0.19 | +1.41 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 17:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.15 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.03 |
| Daniel Sprong R | 13:07 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.10 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 17:05 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.04 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 23:34 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:48 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 8:46 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 18:58 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 12:13 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 16:53 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 22:23 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 19:38 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:23 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 13:11 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 14:00 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 15:04 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:44 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:44 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 60:37 | −3.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.