MTL beat TOR 1–0. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 5.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored on the power play at 7:48 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 54% to 70%. Samuel Montembeault saved 4.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:48 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Juraj Slafkovský, Kirby Dach | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 21:13 | +0.29 | +0.52 | −0.52 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 14:26 | +0.28 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 18:17 | +0.16 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:18 | +0.16 | +0.27 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 9:43 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 20:45 | +0.11 | +0.44 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 18:17 | +0.08 | +0.35 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:36 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 22:39 | +0.04 | +0.60 | −0.68 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 13:24 | +0.00 | +0.21 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:03 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:00 | −0.06 | +0.30 | −0.22 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:48 | −0.07 | +0.23 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:05 | −0.09 | +0.25 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:27 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:10 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 16:08 | −0.17 | +0.20 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 18:48 | −0.37 | +0.41 | −0.77 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 57:14 | +2.46 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Savard D | 20:05 | +0.26 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 17:43 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.52 | +0.56 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 18:22 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 12:21 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 10:21 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:50 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 15:59 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Evans C | 17:04 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:21 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 9:40 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 11:50 | −0.47 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:43 | −0.48 | +0.14 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 11:27 | −0.51 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:35 | −0.51 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:01 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.54 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 23:45 | −0.66 | −0.57 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:13 | −0.67 | −0.09 | −0.56 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:40 | −0.88 | −0.73 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +4.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.