NJD beat BUF 3–1. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Paul Cotter scored at 7:18 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:18 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jordan Greenway, Alex Tuch | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:59 | NJD | Seamus CaseyPP from Erik Haula, Stefan Noesen | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 7:18 | NJD | Paul Cotter from Jack Hughes | 1–2 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 14:14 | NJD | Timo Meier from Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes | 1–3 | 87% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 1:39 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 14:13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:48 | −0.08 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:12 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 19:45 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:33 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 13:26 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 15:29 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:07 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:56 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 24:42 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:04 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:59 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:11 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:34 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 21:10 | −0.37 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 14:00 | −0.52 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 56:46 | +0.63 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cotter C | 16:42 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.07 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seamus Casey D | 12:09 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.08 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 19:24 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.08 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 23:43 | +0.28 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 24:29 | +0.21 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 20:44 | +0.20 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.12 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 12:16 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:53 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 3:39 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 11:48 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 14:48 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:52 | −0.06 | +0.21 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 15:25 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:33 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:32 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:19 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.13 | −0.45 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 20:37 | 2 | −0.30 | +0.17 | −0.50 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | +0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.