WPG beat VAN 4–2. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nikita Chibrikov scored at 5:18 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 80%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:22 |  VAN | Conor Garland unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:26 |  WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Alex Iafallo, Brad Lambert | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 0:55 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Mason Appleton, Nate Schmidt | 1–2 | 52% → 72% |
| P2 17:11 | VAN | Elias LindholmPP from Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:18 | WPG | Nikita Chibrikov from Nino Niederreiter | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 17:55 | WPG | Cole PerfettiEN unassisted | 2–4 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Garland R | 16:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.16 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:25 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.08 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 18:52 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:22 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Friedman D | 15:55 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:45 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 14:36 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 14:16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 18:21 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:59 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:23 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 22:38 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Aman C | 13:44 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:26 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:50 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 13:32 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 16:35 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 10:41 | −0.54 | −0.12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 59:44 | −0.46 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 12:58 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.03 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 17:17 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Chibrikov R | 11:03 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.03 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 21:17 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 22:31 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 17:10 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:37 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:17 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:33 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 14:26 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 11:58 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 15:38 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 16:43 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 20:45 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 15:19 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 13:51 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 16:07 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:05 | −0.44 | +0.05 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 60:00 | −0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.