ARI beat EDM 5–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matias Maccelli scored at 15:05 of the second, moving ARI’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Calvin Pickard allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:18 |  ARI | Liam O'Brien from Juuso Välimäki, Michael Kesselring | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:06 | EDM | Sam Carrick from Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 15:05 | ARI | Matias Maccelli from Jack McBain, Aku Raty | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 4:55 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Vladislav Kolyachonok, Dylan Guenther | 1–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 8:01 | EDM | Warren Foegele from Philip Broberg | 2–3 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 14:27 | ARI | Dylan GuentherPP from Clayton Keller, Alexander Kerfoot | 2–4 | 89% → 98% |
| P3 15:45 | ARI | Sean DurziEN unassisted | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Foegele L | 15:27 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:30 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 12:58 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 13:32 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:01 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 16:50 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 16:04 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 19:57 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 16:14 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 13:20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 12:44 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 19:20 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:09 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:15 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 17:44 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 18:10 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.31 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 15:22 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:10 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 59:03 | −1.86 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:54 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.05 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:10 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.07 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:37 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.11 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aku Raty R | 11:45 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 24:35 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 12:28 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:09 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 19:44 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 15:00 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:08 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 16:24 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:48 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:54 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 16:34 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:45 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 22:12 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:11 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 59:57 | +0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.