NYI beat PIT 5–4. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom scored at 14:27 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:56 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Simon Holmstrom | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 18:29 |  PIT | Rickard Rakell from Michael Bunting, Evgeni Malkin | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 6:14 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 13:19 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Alexander Romanov, Samuel Bolduc | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 14:37 | PIT | Valtteri Puustinen unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 19:44 | NYI | Kyle PalmieriPP from Brock Nelson, Mike Reilly | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 1:36 | NYI | Samuel BolducPP from Ryan Pulock, Ruslan Iskhakov | 3–4 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 10:56 | PIT | Jeff CarterPP from Sidney Crosby, Michael Bunting | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 14:27 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Kyle MacLean | 4–5 | 51% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.31 | +0.47 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 9:53 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.08 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 14:26 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.12 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:16 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.65 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 14:50 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.06 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:42 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 12:41 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 11:09 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:26 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:47 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.46 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:07 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 18:16 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.33 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 12:54 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 11:22 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:55 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 21:01 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 12:42 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:22 | −0.23 | +0.28 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 57:34 | −1.57 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.05 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Samuel Bolduc D | 19:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.08 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 16:00 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.04 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 20:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.27 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 16:46 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 18:06 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 20:02 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:42 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 18:51 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:16 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 2:36 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 21:05 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.27 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 10:28 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 14:15 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:55 | −0.38 | +0.09 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ruslan Iskhakov C | 14:11 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.40 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:12 | −0.56 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:53 | +0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.