CBJ beat CAR 6–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau scored at 12:18 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Spencer Martin allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:37 | CBJ | Luca Del Bel Belluz from Mikael Pyyhtia, Zach Werenski | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:24 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Cole Sillinger, Kirill Marchenko | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 7:10 | CAR | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Maxime Comtois, Stefan Noesen | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P1 18:16 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brent Burns | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 19:01 | CBJ | James Malatesta from Mathieu Olivier, Sean Kuraly | 2–3 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 10:16 | CAR | Teuvo TeravainenPP from Brent Burns, Stefan Noesen | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:18 | CBJ | Johnny Gaudreau from Justin Danforth, Zach Werenski | 3–4 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 0:47 | CBJ | Alex Nylander from Erik Gudbranson, Ivan Provorov | 3–5 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 19:21 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Mathieu Olivier, Erik Gudbranson | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 15:48 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.23 | +1.21 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.67 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Brent Burns D | 10:09 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:25 | +0.16 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 17:59 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 13:04 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:40 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 6:53 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 19:08 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Morrow D | 23:11 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 16:52 | −0.15 | +0.25 | −0.39 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 11:42 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 19:31 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.23 | −0.40 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:29 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:51 | −0.27 | +0.14 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:53 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 15:18 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 17:45 | −0.65 | +0.22 | −0.87 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 60:00 | −3.48 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 27:18 | 2 | 2 | +1.66 | +0.03 | +1.62 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 15:39 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.09 | +0.79 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luca Del Bel Belluz C | 9:35 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.02 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Nylander L | 15:51 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.06 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James Malatesta L | 13:01 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.11 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gavin Brindley C | 12:20 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 14:49 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 15:07 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 15:58 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:49 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 15:57 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.11 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Jiricek D | 9:58 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:02 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 18:07 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 12:27 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 23:04 | 2 | −0.44 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:34 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Damon Severson D | 19:59 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | +1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.