OTT beat BOS 3–1. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 1.2 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jiri Smejkal scored at 10:03 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Anton Forsberg saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:03 | OTT | Jiri Smejkal from Erik Brannstrom | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 10:54 | OTT | Jakob Chychrun from Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P3 12:44 |  BOS | Pavel ZachaPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, David Pastrnak | 2–1 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 18:12 | OTT | Artem ZubEN unassisted | 3–1 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiri Smejkal L | 14:59 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.07 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:15 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.13 | +0.87 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 17:12 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 6:46 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 10:35 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:47 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 11:02 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 20:17 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 10:30 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:20 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 10:42 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:58 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:18 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 27:02 | −0.28 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 25:58 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 19:19 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 18:45 | −0.79 | −0.14 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.37 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:00 | +2.49 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:28 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.15 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 13:59 | +0.23 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 17:58 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:38 | +0.15 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:39 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 18:25 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 17:14 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 15:55 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 16:42 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 11:45 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 13:43 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:17 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 22:44 | −0.21 | +0.15 | −0.39 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 11:48 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 15:21 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 14:50 | −0.31 | +0.14 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 14:39 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 58:24 | −0.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.