EDM beat SJS 9–2. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 0:53 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Devin Cooley allowed 5.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:53 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Darnell Nurse | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:01 | EDM | Adam Henrique from Brett Kulak | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 10:40 | EDM | Warren Foegele from Leon Draisaitl | 0–3 | 83% → 91% |
| P1 19:35 | EDM | Dylan Holloway from Adam Henrique, Darnell Nurse | 0–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P2 1:58 | SJS | Danil Gushchin from Thomas Bordeleau | 1–4 | 1% → 6% |
| P2 4:41 | EDM | Warren Foegele from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl | 1–5 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 10:11 | EDM | Corey Perry from Evan Bouchard, Dylan Holloway | 1–6 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 13:18 | EDM | Cody Ceci from Adam Henrique, Zach Hyman | 1–7 | 100% → 100% |
| P2 13:49 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Corey Perry, Dylan Holloway | 1–8 | 100% → 100% |
| P2 15:35 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse | 1–9 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:29 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from William Eklund, Mikael Granlund | 2–9 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danil Gushchin L | 12:37 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 17:54 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.03 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 20:07 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:35 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 15:58 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 18:01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 17:34 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:18 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 14:33 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 18:46 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 23:14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:10 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:15 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 19:12 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 11:47 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 11:02 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:54 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.05 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Georgii Romanov G | 26:11 | +0.63 |
| Devin Cooley G | 33:49 | −5.18 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Foegele L | 15:57 | 2 | +1.03 | +0.03 | +1.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 14:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 18:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cody Ceci D | 21:26 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 15:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.65 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Adam Henrique C | 15:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.53 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Dylan Holloway L | 13:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zach Hyman L | 15:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.44 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 15:36 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 20:49 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:10 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:14 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:19 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 20:41 | 3 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 15:21 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 13:51 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 13:16 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 15:05 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:00 | +0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.