DET beat MTL 5–4 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lucas Raymond scored at 4:35 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:25 |  MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Lane Hutson, David Savard | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:15 | MTL | Justin Barron from Josh Anderson, Jake Evans | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 8:11 |  DET | J.T. Compher from Alex DeBrincat, Ben Chiarot | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P2 5:15 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-Pinard from Jake Evans, Johnathan Kovacevic | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 15:26 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Jake Evans | 4–1 | 87% → 96% |
| P2 15:59 | DET | J.T. Compher from David Perron, Patrick Kane | 4–2 | 3% → 13% |
| P3 10:38 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Shayne Gostisbehere, Olli Maatta | 4–3 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 18:43 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from David Perron, Shayne Gostisbehere | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 4:35 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Dylan Larkin, Shayne Gostisbehere | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:44 | 2 | +1.29 | −0.14 | +1.44 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 14:40 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Barron D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.11 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:30 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:54 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| David Savard D | 24:19 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:15 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:32 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 8:41 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:28 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 8:37 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 15:40 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:58 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:12 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:57 | −0.50 | −0.32 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 14:43 | −0.53 | −0.23 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 21:05 | −0.57 | +0.08 | −0.62 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 64:35 | −1.47 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Compher L | 19:59 | 2 | +1.37 | +0.01 | +1.32 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 22:10 | 2 | +1.28 | +0.27 | +1.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 22:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.38 | +0.51 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:56 | 3 | +0.35 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 26:10 | +0.26 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 13:40 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 23:29 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 19:38 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 7:43 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 15:38 | −0.06 | +0.39 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 15:48 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 7:26 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 15:10 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 9:39 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 19:22 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 13:23 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:52 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:15 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 63:32 | −1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.