CAR beat CHI 4–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Seth Jarvis scored on the power play at 16:27 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 89%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:05 | CHI | Frank Nazar from Seth Jones | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 4:10 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Jordan Martinook, Andrei Svechnikov | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 1:54 | CHI | Andreas Athanasiou from Lukas Reichel, Ryan Donato | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 6:24 | CAR | Seth JarvisPP unassisted | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 16:27 | CAR | Seth JarvisPP from Brent Burns, Andrei Svechnikov | 3–2 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 17:54 | CAR | Sebastian AhoEN from Jake Guentzel | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:20 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.29 | +1.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 14:53 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.28 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:54 | +0.32 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 20:35 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:22 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:33 | +0.16 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 16:24 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:46 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:20 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:23 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 11:10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 11:27 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 11:07 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 16:06 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.23 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Martin Necas C | 15:46 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:48 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 59:56 | −0.69 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 11:37 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.00 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.05 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 15:55 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.18 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 20:15 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 20:10 | −0.08 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 11:36 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 18:34 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 11:41 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 17:03 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:52 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jarred Tinordi D | 14:46 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joey Anderson R | 15:15 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 17:36 | −0.20 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 19:00 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:45 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 13:46 | −0.33 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 17:51 | −0.38 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:00 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 17:36 | −0.69 | −0.33 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 59:40 | +0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.