VGK beat COL 4–3 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored on the power play at 1:23 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:26 | COL | Ross Colton from Miles Wood, Cale Makar | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:34 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 12:50 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Josh Manson, Valeri Nichushkin | 3–0 | 86% → 96% |
| P3 2:56 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Keegan Kolesar, Noah Hanifin | 3–1 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 6:35 | VGK | William KarlssonPP from Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore | 3–2 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 16:23 | VGK | William Karlsson from Brett Howden, Zach Whitecloud | 3–3 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 1:23 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Colton C | 10:22 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Cale Makar D | 24:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.14 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:17 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.06 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Walker D | 20:11 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:38 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:49 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 8:39 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:42 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:34 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 13:39 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:36 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 16:08 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:11 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:33 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:48 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 19:12 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 19:49 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 21:26 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.56 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 61:23 | −1.39 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson C | 15:35 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.08 | +1.48 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:57 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.07 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.13 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 21:20 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 23:31 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.30 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:17 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 14:48 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 15:23 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 10:41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:49 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:59 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:04 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 11:27 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:56 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 11:16 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:01 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.04 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 61:23 | −0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.