ARI beat EDM 3–2 in overtime. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matias Maccelli scored at 1:35 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:20 |  ARI | Josh Doan from Jack McBain, Matias Maccelli | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:49 |  EDM | Adam Henrique from Evander Kane, Troy Stecher | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 5:37 | ARI | Logan Cooley from Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 1:12 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Warren Foegele, Evander Kane | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| OT 1:35 | ARI | Matias Maccelli from Michael Kesselring, Josh Doan | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.05 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Josh Doan R | 14:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.06 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 22:53 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 17:16 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.40 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 20:16 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 14:52 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Jenik C | 7:16 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 15:54 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:35 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 21:16 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 14:21 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 20:42 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:50 | −0.35 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 21:12 | −0.40 | +0.31 | −0.71 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:13 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.30 | −0.80 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 22:08 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.29 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:39 | −0.87 | −0.48 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 61:35 | +1.87 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:50 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.22 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 16:03 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.19 | +0.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 18:46 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 9:36 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:32 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:53 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 9:20 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:57 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 12:57 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:40 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:28 | −0.06 | +0.22 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 11:10 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 11:32 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 16:22 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 20:25 | −0.30 | +0.26 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:25 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:19 | −0.46 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:41 | −0.75 | −0.06 | −0.69 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 61:30 | +0.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.