CAR beat STL 5–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jaccob Slavin scored at 7:53 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 78%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:34 | STL | Zachary Bolduc from Nick Leddy, Robert Thomas | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 18:59 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Andrei Svechnikov | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:41 | STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 8:07 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Brady Skjei, Frederik Andersen | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 7:53 | CAR | Jaccob Slavin from Sebastian Aho, Tony DeAngelo | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 17:20 | CAR | Jake GuentzelEN unassisted | 4–2 | 90% → 99% |
| P3 19:10 | CAR | Jake GuentzelEN from Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:29 | 1 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.15 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:52 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.14 | +0.69 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:10 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 23:29 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Morrow D | 13:35 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 11:22 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 13:48 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 16:57 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:09 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:16 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 21:25 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:00 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:03 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Martin Necas C | 16:12 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 13:03 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 8:17 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 10:52 | −0.72 | +0.17 | −0.89 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 59:56 | +0.67 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:28 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.02 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:10 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.59 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:17 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 11:31 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 26:44 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 12:42 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 21:59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 21:20 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 10:02 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 24:02 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 11:52 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 10:50 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:51 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:00 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 14:09 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:07 | −0.58 | −0.07 | −0.52 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Dean C | 12:06 | −0.70 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 18:35 | 2 | −0.76 | +0.03 | −0.44 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:15 | +0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.