SJS beat SEA 3–1. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 5.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Burroughs scored at 14:46 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Devin Cooley saved 4.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:06 | SJS | Luke Kunin from Henry Thrun, Klim Kostin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:22 |  SEA | Brian Dumoulin from Jordan Eberle | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 14:46 | SJS | Kyle Burroughs from William Eklund, Henry Thrun | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 15:37 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Mikael Granlund, William Eklund | 3–1 | 70% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:20 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.11 | +0.49 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 16:12 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.19 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 20:12 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.26 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 14:49 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 5:50 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 5:54 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 7:52 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:43 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 14:58 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 21:46 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:30 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 14:39 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 18:00 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 15:55 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Collin Graf R | 16:27 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:08 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 21:17 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 12:28 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 60:00 | +4.69 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:06 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.14 | +0.78 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 15:46 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 18:13 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 13:27 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 19:47 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:14 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:55 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 15:31 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:33 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 12:22 | −0.25 | +0.18 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:32 | −0.28 | +0.19 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:56 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:20 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 7:16 | −0.31 | +0.11 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 18:16 | −0.32 | +0.17 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 20:59 | −0.35 | +0.16 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:12 | −0.43 | +0.18 | −0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:44 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 56:51 | −1.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.