NJD beat TOR 6–5. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 18:46 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:18 | TOR | John Tavares from Mitch Marner | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 0:39 | NJD | Erik Haula unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 6:08 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Max Domi, TJ Brodie | 1–2 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:57 | NJD | Nolan Foote unassisted | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 12:37 | NJD | Timo MeierPP from Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes | 3–2 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 7:59 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 9:16 | TOR | David Kampf from Connor Dewar | 3–4 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 19:48 | NJD | Timo MeierPP from Nico Hischier | 4–4 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 11:03 | NJD | Jesper BrattPP from Luke Hughes, Timo Meier | 5–4 | 50% → 81% |
| P3 15:13 | TOR | John Tavares from Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner | 5–5 | 13% → 51% |
| P3 18:46 | NJD | Jesper Bratt unassisted | 6–5 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 20:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.41 | −0.04 | +1.46 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:31 | 2 | 1 | +1.40 | −0.36 | +1.59 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Erik Haula L | 18:43 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.03 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nolan Foote L | 8:05 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 19:04 | 2 | +0.24 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 23:25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 5:55 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Bowers C | 11:50 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 7:38 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:03 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 12:51 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:03 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 21:11 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 11:49 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 22:58 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 23:48 | −0.26 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:48 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Graeme Clarke R | 15:49 | −0.59 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | −1.91 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 17:26 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.31 | +1.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.12 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:56 | 2 | +1.40 | +0.19 | +1.40 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| David Kampf C | 12:59 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.05 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:19 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:32 | +0.21 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 23:40 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.32 | −0.18 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 10:33 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:43 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 19:22 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:50 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 16:27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 15:56 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:22 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 10:34 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 9:23 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 11:29 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 22:25 | −0.32 | +0.24 | −0.55 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 11:34 | 2 | −0.38 | +0.17 | −0.21 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 59:01 | −4.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.