PIT beat DET 6–5 in overtime. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Erik Karlsson scored at 1:40 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alex Lyon allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:40 |  PIT | Drew O'Connor from Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:39 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Alex DeBrincat | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 15:09 | PIT | Kris Letang from Michael Bunting, Rickard Rakell | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:46 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:58 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Bryan Rust, Reilly Smith | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:44 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Reilly Smith | 2–4 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 19:24 | DET | Jeff Petry from Moritz Seider, Daniel Sprong | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 3:32 | PIT | Jeff CarterSH unassisted | 3–5 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 12:56 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Lucas Raymond, J.T. Compher | 4–5 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 14:53 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat | 5–5 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 1:40 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:20 | 3 | 1 | +2.44 | +0.23 | +2.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:41 | 1 | 2 | +1.06 | +0.25 | +0.46 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.12 |
| Jeff Petry D | 18:08 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.03 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 23:51 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 11:55 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:15 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:15 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 15:26 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 20:02 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:40 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 8:43 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:11 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 19:12 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 5:13 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 20:28 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 12:14 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:33 | 3 | −0.45 | +0.18 | −0.67 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 21:53 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 61:40 | −3.31 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:02 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.17 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 12:15 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.09 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 22:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | −0.04 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Kris Letang D | 24:50 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.26 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:18 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.09 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:35 | 1 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.13 | +0.29 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Ryan Shea D | 11:10 | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 12:21 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 15:57 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 9:14 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 5:00 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 18:42 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 24:34 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:11 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:54 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 20:25 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 4:57 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:21 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:48 | −1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.