SEA beat ARI 5–0. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Shane Wright scored at 1:08 of the first, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Philipp Grubauer saved 3.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:08 | SEA | Shane Wright from Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:14 | SEA | Andre BurakovskyPP from Matty Beniers, Justin Schultz | 0–2 | 70% → 82% |
| P2 4:29 | SEA | Justin Schultz from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Matty Beniers | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P3 6:38 | SEA | Brandon Tanev from Yanni Gourde, Tye Kartye | 0–4 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 9:35 | SEA | Will Borgen from Jamie Oleksiak, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Durzi D | 21:50 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:30 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 18:29 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Jenik C | 9:46 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:54 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 16:48 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.22 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 19:14 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 23:25 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maksymilian Szuber D | 16:59 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:53 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 17:57 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:36 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 13:48 | −0.21 | +0.11 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 11:57 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:14 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:47 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 19:09 | −0.59 | −0.04 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:17 | −0.64 | +0.08 | −0.68 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −3.16 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tanev L | 16:06 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.03 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:17 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.03 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Shane Wright C | 15:51 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.11 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Will Borgen D | 16:59 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.11 | +0.93 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 18:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Morrison C | 12:18 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 16:57 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:53 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 12:10 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:14 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ryan Winterton C | 10:23 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 21:28 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:53 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:53 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 21:05 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:11 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:12 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:46 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +3.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.