WPG beat NSH 4–3 in overtime. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 1:52 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:05 |  NSH | Tommy Novak from Kiefer Sherwood | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:51 |  WPG | Gabriel VilardiPP from Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 8:19 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Tyler Toffoli | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:46 | WPG | Dylan DeMelo from Morgan Barron | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P3 7:34 | NSH | Spencer Stastney from Roman Josi, Kiefer Sherwood | 3–2 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 9:41 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 1:52 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:53 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.02 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 19:19 | 1 | 2 | +0.92 | −0.02 | +0.75 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Kyle Connor L | 17:24 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:27 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.34 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 14:03 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.18 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 17:21 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 13:54 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:21 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 9:23 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:00 | −0.18 | +0.21 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 15:14 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 17:43 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 14:43 | −0.25 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 13:28 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 21:35 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 13:34 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 9:37 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 19:37 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:52 | +2.02 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Stastney D | 14:35 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.05 | +0.64 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:07 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.08 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 12:33 | +0.20 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 19:49 | +0.13 | +0.22 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:09 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:07 | +0.12 | +0.21 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 20:15 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 13:21 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:42 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.24 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:27 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:54 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 9:36 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:44 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 23:26 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.48 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 14:23 | −0.57 | +0.13 | −0.68 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:53 | −0.71 | +0.06 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:38 | −0.85 | +0.14 | −1.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 61:48 | −1.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.