STL beat ANA 6–5 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (STL 3.3, ANA 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Leo Carlsson scored at 16:09 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 11% to 51%. Lukas Dostal allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:11 | STL | Zachary Bolduc from Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:37 | ANA | Nikita Nesterenko from Gustav Lindstrom, Isac Lundeström | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 12:36 | STL | Matthew Kessel from Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 3:41 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Alex Killorn, Trevor Zegras | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 13:36 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Torey Krug, Jordan Kyrou | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 15:50 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Jordan Kyrou, Scott Perunovich | 4–2 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 1:01 | ANA | Leo CarlssonPP from Isac Lundeström, Troy Terry | 4–3 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 2:40 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas | 5–3 | 75% → 91% |
| P3 8:04 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Trevor Zegras, Ryan Strome | 5–4 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 16:09 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Alex Killorn, Cam Fowler | 5–5 | 11% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:39 | 3 | +1.33 | +0.47 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.71 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:39 | 1 | 3 | +0.69 | +0.27 | +0.22 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.15 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:28 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.24 | +0.43 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 16:37 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.23 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Kessel D | 17:17 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.14 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.17 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.09 |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:14 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 14:40 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 10:10 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 21:58 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 13:19 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 21:16 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 21:17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:58 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:30 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Dean C | 13:31 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:52 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 10:32 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 65:00 | +0.00 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 18:55 | 2 | +1.26 | +0.21 | +1.39 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.27 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 19:04 | 2 | +1.01 | −0.20 | +1.45 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 12:38 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.07 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 16:16 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 15:11 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 15:10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:33 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.27 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 10:41 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:09 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 10:50 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:42 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 20:04 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 18:05 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 24:46 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 9:59 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:43 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.14 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:55 | 2 | −0.79 | −0.13 | −0.35 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.30 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 17:03 | 1 | −1.01 | +0.11 | −0.96 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 64:58 | −2.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.