OTT beat WSH 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 3.2, WSH 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jake Sanderson scored at 0:41 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:43 |  WSH | Max Pacioretty from Hendrix Lapierre | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 5:40 |  OTT | Mark Kastelic from Jakob Chychrun, Parker Kelly | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 17:10 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Martin Fehérváry | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 12:49 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Shane Pinto, Erik Brannstrom | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 0:41 | OTT | Jake Sanderson from Ridly Greig, Brady Tkachuk | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:05 | 1 | +1.34 | +0.23 | +0.91 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:17 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.54 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:37 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.26 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 20:25 | +0.18 | +0.32 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 21:32 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 21:13 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 8:14 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jiri Smejkal L | 9:14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 10:27 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:23 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bokondji Imama L | 8:21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 17:10 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 17:17 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 18:13 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:49 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:40 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 18:31 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.27 | −0.61 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 60:05 | +0.54 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas L | 15:40 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.15 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Max Pacioretty L | 17:06 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.10 | +0.41 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 14:57 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 22:43 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 14:48 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:49 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 7:09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 6:05 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 23:08 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 13:47 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 6:46 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:56 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:52 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 21:23 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 28:58 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 24:04 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 18:51 | −0.66 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 17:01 | −0.80 | −0.07 | −0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:41 | −0.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.