ARI beat SJS 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (ARI 2.2, SJS 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 4:56 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 76%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:17 |  ARI | Lawson CrousePP from Matias Maccelli, Logan Cooley | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:28 | SJS | Henry ThrunPP from Mikael Granlund, Fabian Zetterlund | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 11:07 | ARI | Liam O'Brien unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 11:40 | SJS | Luke Kunin from Henry Thrun, Collin Graf | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 4:56 | ARI | Dylan Guenther from Alexander Kerfoot, Lawson Crouse | 3–2 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 14:13 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Juuso Välimäki | 4–2 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 16:54 | ARI | Nick SchmaltzEN from Clayton Keller, Sean Durzi | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:04 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.09 | +0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 12:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Clayton Keller R | 16:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.03 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 14:31 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 11:46 | +0.30 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:40 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 16:10 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 20:54 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 21:34 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 16:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 25:05 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.21 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 10:47 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:21 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 18:52 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 15:26 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 14:47 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 10:46 | −0.28 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 19:08 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:00 | −0.00 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kunin C | 16:02 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 22:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.06 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 16:34 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 11:25 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 22:14 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 12:12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:24 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 8:29 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 20:20 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 14:48 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 16:37 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 10:47 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 13:31 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 12:14 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 18:36 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 19:07 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jack Studnicka C | 10:53 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 25:52 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:18 | −1.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.