NYI beat NSH 2–0. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Noah Dobson scored at 9:07 of the second, moving NYI’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Semyon Varlamov saved 6.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:07 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Mike Reilly, Mathew Barzal | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 18:41 | NYI | Kyle PalmieriEN from Alexander Romanov | 0–2 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:52 | +0.26 | +0.41 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 27:50 | +0.18 | +0.55 | −0.12 | −0.27 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:28 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 20:21 | +0.11 | +0.38 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:46 | +0.10 | +0.56 | −0.51 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:21 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:29 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 13:11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:04 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 15:04 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 11:56 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:59 | −0.06 | +0.30 | −0.23 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:53 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 19:04 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 11:05 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 13:28 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:46 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:45 | −0.35 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 57:38 | +0.86 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reilly D | 14:41 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 22:55 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.28 | +0.43 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:15 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:59 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:36 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:36 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 8:06 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 10:01 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 12:50 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 23:17 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 24:51 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:38 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 18:27 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:10 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 18:25 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:48 | −0.45 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 13:45 | −0.54 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 60:00 | +6.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.