CBJ beat PHI 6–2. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 3.4, CBJ 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Erik Gudbranson scored at 12:08 of the first, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Samuel Ersson allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:08 | CBJ | Erik Gudbranson from Mikael Pyyhtia, Justin Danforth | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:54 | CBJ | Damon Severson from Zach Werenski, Johnny Gaudreau | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 8:23 | CBJ | Damon Severson from Johnny Gaudreau, Alex Nylander | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 14:32 |  PHI | Olle Lycksell from Garnet Hathaway | 1–3 | 3% → 10% |
| P2 15:20 | CBJ | Nick Blankenburg from David Jiricek, Alexandre Texier | 1–4 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 9:29 | CBJ | Zach WerenskiPP from Dmitri Voronkov | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 11:26 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Carson Meyer, James Malatesta | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:08 | PHI | Adam Ginning from Noah Cates, Ronnie Attard | 2–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ginning D | 14:26 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.15 | +0.91 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olle Lycksell R | 11:55 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 12:21 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 15:08 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 22:30 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 15:47 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 22:01 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 21:14 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 12:52 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:51 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 21:31 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 14:11 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ronnie Attard D | 14:25 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 18:09 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 16:10 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 14:11 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 19:06 | −0.44 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 16:08 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 60:00 | −3.03 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson D | 21:53 | 2 | +1.59 | −0.09 | +1.73 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 22:24 | 2 | 1 | +1.43 | −0.08 | +1.51 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 13:51 | 1 | +1.28 | +0.19 | +0.91 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 23:36 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.10 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Meyer R | 10:19 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 15:19 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| David Jiricek D | 12:56 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 16:24 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Nylander L | 18:02 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:32 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 12:28 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 14:43 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:26 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:04 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| James Malatesta L | 10:58 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:46 | −0.40 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 17:48 | 2 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.62 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:31 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.04 | −0.63 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | +0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.