SJS beat STL 3–2 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Eklund scored at 3:56 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:42 | SJS | William EklundPP from Henry Thrun, Mikael Granlund | 0–1 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 16:59 | SJS | William EklundPP from Fabian Zetterlund, Thomas Bordeleau | 0–2 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 3:21 |  STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 1–2 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 17:31 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Robert Thomas, Scott Perunovich | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 3:56 | SJS | William Eklund from Luke Kunin | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn C | 24:33 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 21:40 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.21 | +0.40 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 23:01 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 15:26 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:45 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 9:48 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 22:16 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 16:08 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 10:10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 20:01 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:55 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 17:07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 10:04 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 23:21 | 2 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Dean C | 11:09 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 13:20 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 16:01 | −0.50 | +0.09 | −0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 63:09 | −0.60 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Eklund L | 20:26 | 3 | +2.50 | +0.24 | +2.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:52 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 13:36 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 18:41 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 6:56 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 9:55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 12:32 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 22:30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:14 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 15:50 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 19:14 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 13:30 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 16:57 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.50 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Calen Addison D | 5:36 | −0.42 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 25:33 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 15:51 | −0.63 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 18:33 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.02 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 63:46 | +0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.