ARI beat VGK 7–4. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 2.2, ARI 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Michael Carcone scored at 14:47 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Logan Thompson allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:17 |  ARI | Alexander Kerfoot from Michael Kesselring | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 7:39 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 11:08 | VGK | William Karlsson from Brendan Brisson, Shea Theodore | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 14:37 | VGK | Anthony Mantha from William Karlsson, Pavel Dorofeyev | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 18:08 | VGK | Chandler Stephenson from Paul Cotter, Zach Whitecloud | 4–1 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 8:19 | ARI | Josh Doan from Jack McBain, Matias Maccelli | 4–2 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 9:16 | ARI | Nick Bjugstad from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 4–3 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 9:26 | ARI | Michael Carcone from Liam O'Brien | 4–4 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 14:47 | ARI | Michael Carcone from Alexander Kerfoot, Travis Dermott | 4–5 | 51% → 88% |
| P3 15:48 | ARI | Joshua Brown from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 4–6 | 90% → 99% |
| P3 17:25 | ARI | Logan CooleyEN from Lawson Crouse, Dylan Guenther | 4–7 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:46 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| William Karlsson C | 14:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.83 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:52 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 21:30 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.16 | +0.62 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 15:40 | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:48 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 14:54 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 12:27 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:34 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:34 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 13:52 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 15:18 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 20:06 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:53 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Brisson C | 11:40 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:27 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 20:36 | −0.62 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 59:54 | −3.43 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carcone L | 11:47 | 2 | +1.54 | +0.04 | +1.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Josh Doan R | 11:25 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 18:57 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.13 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 19:02 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:38 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 22:40 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:11 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:07 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 20:58 | −0.04 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 17:42 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:30 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 14:28 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:27 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:31 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 16:05 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 19:10 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.