BUF beat PHI 4–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rasmus Dahlin scored at 14:51 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Ivan Fedotov allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:01 | BUF | Tage Thompson from JJ Peterka, Alex Tuch | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 9:07 | PHI | Noah Cates from Owen Tippett, Cam York | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:51 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 19:54 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Zach Benson, Owen Power | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 9:19 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton | 2–3 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 13:59 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Zach Benson, Dylan Cozens | 2–4 | 87% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett R | 19:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.06 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Noah Cates L | 12:06 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.07 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 22:56 | +0.23 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 19:19 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 13:16 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 12:48 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 9:58 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 15:12 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:48 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 21:40 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 12:54 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:02 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 23:41 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 18:20 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 21:09 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 23:40 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olle Lycksell R | 11:39 | −0.38 | +0.11 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 19:38 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov G | 55:42 | −2.23 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn R | 16:57 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.04 | +1.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:26 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.04 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.23 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Lukas Rousek R | 10:29 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 25:07 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 14:51 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 13:32 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 17:51 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 14:01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:58 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:36 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 8:06 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 8:19 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:39 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 18:54 | −0.40 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 21:07 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 20:27 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.17 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | +1.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.