Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2024-04-04 · SAP Center at San Jose

2 – 1Final

LAK beat SJS 2–1. LAK also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Adrian Kempe scored at 10:55 of the first, moving LAK’s win probability from 47% to 64%.

Shots on goal
27 – 16
Expected goals
2.5 – 1.6
xG share
LAK 60%
Home-ice start
SJS 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

LAK goalSJS goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

LAKSJS

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

LAK
Akil Thomas
1 G, 0 A · 8:53 TOI
Finishing +0.84
+0.86
SJS
58:07 TOI
GSAx +0.74
+0.74
LAK
1 G, 0 A · 21:57 TOI
Finishing +0.55
+0.58

Rough nights

SJS
Calen Addison
0 G, 0 A · 22:14 TOI
Finishing −0.10 · Penalties −0.37
−0.52
LAK
0 G, 0 A · 16:51 TOI
On-ice +0.10 · Finishing −0.46
−0.37
SJS
Filip Zadina
0 G, 0 A · 12:06 TOI
Finishing −0.27
−0.31

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalLAK–SJSWin prob.
P1 10:55 LAKAdrian Kempe
unassisted
1–047% → 64%
P1 11:13 LAKAkil Thomas
from Jordan Spence, Pierre-Luc Dubois
2–064% → 77%
P3 18:08 SJSKlim KostinPP
from Mikael Granlund, William Eklund
2–10% → 7%

Every player

Show both lineups

LAK

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Akil Thomas C8:531+0.86+0.03+0.84−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Adrian Kempe R21:571+0.58+0.04+0.55−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Mikey Anderson D19:29+0.25+0.06+0.00−0.01+0.01+0.19+0.00
Anze Kopitar C21:42+0.20+0.09−0.00+0.03+0.01+0.00+0.08
Quinton Byfield R14:15+0.12+0.04−0.33−0.00+0.01+0.37+0.03
Blake Lizotte C18:24+0.07+0.12−0.00−0.02−0.00+0.00−0.03
Drew Doughty D29:34+0.05+0.08−0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Trevor Moore L18:43+0.00+0.01−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01
Jacob Moverare D3:45−0.01−0.01+0.00−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Alex Laferriere R10:40−0.02−0.02−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Matt Roy D20:13−0.04+0.20−0.24+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Vladislav Gavrikov D21:15−0.06+0.14−0.19−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Jordan Spence D9:541−0.07−0.06+0.01−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Pierre-Luc Dubois C13:411−0.15+0.00−0.10−0.00−0.00+0.00−0.05
Andreas Englund D9:16−0.19−0.03−0.15−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Trevor Lewis C15:54−0.20+0.07−0.44−0.02+0.01+0.19+0.00
Kevin Fiala L20:13−0.21+0.09−0.11+0.00+0.00−0.19−0.01
Viktor Arvidsson L16:51−0.37+0.10−0.46−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
David Rittich G59:21+0.19

SJS

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Klim Kostin C17:061+0.56−0.04+0.80−0.01−0.00−0.19+0.00
Thomas Bordeleau C16:11+0.13+0.03−0.09−0.01−0.01+0.19+0.02
William Eklund L21:031−0.02+0.00−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Kyle Burroughs D15:42−0.03−0.01+0.01−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Mario Ferraro D22:33−0.03−0.04+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jack Studnicka C13:40−0.04+0.00−0.01−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.01
Justin Bailey R13:06−0.04−0.03−0.01−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Luke Kunin C14:00−0.04−0.05−0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.06
Nico Sturm C12:31−0.05−0.06−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01
Jan Rutta D20:47−0.09−0.09+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Henry Thrun D17:06−0.09−0.07+0.00−0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00
Mike Hoffman C10:31−0.13−0.13−0.00+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Kevin Labanc R7:55−0.15−0.09−0.03−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Marc-Edouard Vlasic D14:16−0.22−0.04+0.01−0.00+0.00−0.19+0.00
Fabian Zetterlund L18:44−0.24−0.04−0.15−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.05
Mikael Granlund C24:221−0.26−0.10−0.14+0.00+0.01+0.00−0.03
Filip Zadina R12:06−0.31−0.03−0.27−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Calen Addison D22:14−0.52−0.03−0.10−0.00−0.01−0.37+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Mackenzie Blackwood G58:07+0.74

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.