MIN beat OTT 3–2. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vinni Lettieri scored at 13:04 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:32 | MIN | Mason Shaw from Zach Bogosian, Jake Lucchini | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 0:49 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 7:43 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Brady Tkachuk, Jakob Chychrun | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P3 2:42 | OTT | Jakob ChychrunPP from Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 13:04 | MIN | Vinni Lettieri unassisted | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 20:15 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.04 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ridly Greig C | 12:49 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 22:44 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 21:00 | +0.06 | +0.23 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 15:54 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:29 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 19:53 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 9:13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Angus Crookshank C | 3:37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 11:34 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 20:11 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 18:24 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 14:08 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 18:21 | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 15:01 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:21 | 1 | −0.76 | +0.14 | −0.74 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 58:17 | −1.28 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Shaw C | 9:49 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.16 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 18:40 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.08 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Vinni Lettieri C | 11:36 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.10 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 21:47 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Lucchini C | 11:31 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 16:48 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 15:50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:07 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 13:47 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 16:55 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Beckman L | 8:01 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 13:40 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:12 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 21:26 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:03 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:19 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:58 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:59 | +0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.