CBJ beat PIT 4–3 in a shootout. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zach Werenski scored at 11:47 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 18% to 52%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:47 | CBJ | Mathieu OlivierSH from Cole Sillinger | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 13:29 |  PIT | Drew O'Connor from Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:55 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 8:59 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Evgeni Malkin | 3–1 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 9:08 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Damon Severson, Zach Werenski | 3–2 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 11:47 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Johnny Gaudreau | 3–3 | 18% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew O'Connor L | 21:21 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.05 | +0.75 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:31 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.03 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.84 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 21:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| John Ludvig D | 13:02 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 14:50 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.29 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 26:18 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Samuel Poulin R | 5:10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 6:34 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 12:42 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 14:27 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 18:44 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 9:54 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:40 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:36 | −0.31 | +0.16 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 19:07 | −0.32 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 12:55 | −0.40 | +0.16 | −0.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:59 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:33 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 65:00 | −0.37 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson D | 26:38 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.23 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 23:14 | +0.88 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.84 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 27:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.11 | +0.67 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:48 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.12 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 22:33 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.25 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:09 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cameron Butler R | 0:54 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Malatesta L | 5:29 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 14:26 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carson Meyer R | 4:37 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 8:31 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 16:54 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 20:17 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 13:20 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Nylander L | 23:16 | −0.27 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 23:47 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.25 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 19:49 | −0.47 | +0.21 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 24:28 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.43 | −0.78 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 64:26 | +0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.