BUF beat NJD 5–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tage Thompson scored at 15:26 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 89%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:00 | NJD | Max Willman from Luke Hughes, Chris Tierney | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:31 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Nico Hischier, Timo Meier | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 0:28 | BUF | Tage Thompson unassisted | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 17:29 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 15:26 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch | 2–3 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 19:22 | BUF | JJ PeterkaEN from Dylan Cozens, Owen Power | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 19:54 | BUF | Tage ThompsonEN from Henri Jokiharju | 2–5 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Willman C | 6:27 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.12 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 17:46 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:13 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:10 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| John Marino D | 17:35 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:32 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:24 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 14:45 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:41 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 19:43 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 17:30 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 7:48 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 23:17 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 21:33 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 9:15 | −0.41 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 25:31 | −0.44 | −0.16 | −0.50 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 22:09 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.48 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 58:23 | −0.13 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 16:07 | 4 | +2.36 | +0.01 | +2.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Owen Power D | 28:51 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:01 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.29 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 17:06 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:00 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 15:50 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 11:52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 18:19 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:28 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 8:49 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 18:44 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 8:04 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:06 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 16:48 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:52 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 7:07 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 18:21 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 19:35 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 60:00 | +0.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.