SEA beat ANA 4–2. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tye Kartye scored at 13:03 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 51% to 86%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:03 |  SEA | Jaden SchwartzPP from Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann | 0–1 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 2:08 | ANA | Isac LundeströmSH from Jakob Silfverberg, Urho Vaakanainen | 1–1 | 21% → 47% |
| P3 2:52 | ANA | Jakob SilfverbergSH unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 73% |
| P3 6:25 | SEA | Andre BurakovskyPP from Justin Schultz, Jared McCann | 2–2 | 24% → 53% |
| P3 13:03 | SEA | Tye Kartye from Yanni Gourde, Jamie Oleksiak | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 15:35 | SEA | Matty BeniersPP from Jared McCann, Andre Burakovsky | 2–4 | 95% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:27 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.10 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 15:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.15 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Mason McTavish C | 10:35 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 13:27 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 12:50 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 22:25 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:20 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 18:14 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 10:39 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 13:02 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 17:39 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 23:08 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 11:05 | −0.33 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 17:15 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 9:15 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 27:08 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 21:22 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 20:29 | −0.79 | +0.10 | −0.89 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 58:41 | −0.70 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tye Kartye L | 12:38 | 1 | +1.32 | −0.02 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.56 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:23 | 1 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.38 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:27 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.26 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 21:17 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.15 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Jared McCann L | 20:00 | 3 | +0.28 | +0.33 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 19:47 | +0.23 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:06 | +0.21 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 16:10 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.29 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 17:25 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 8:12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:27 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.31 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:52 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:02 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 18:17 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:21 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:13 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 14:31 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Morrison C | 13:12 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:40 | +0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.