ARI beat CBJ 6–2. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Josh Doan scored at 11:32 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:45 | CBJ | Boone JennerPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 14:55 |  ARI | Matias MaccelliPP from Sean Durzi, Clayton Keller | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 16:33 | ARI | Josh Doan unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:21 | CBJ | Zach WerenskiPP from Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau | 2–2 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 11:32 | ARI | Josh Doan from Matias Maccelli, Michael Kesselring | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 14:49 | ARI | Nick Bjugstad from Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi | 2–4 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 16:02 | ARI | Nick SchmaltzSH from Karel Vejmelka | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:49 | ARI | Dylan GuentherSH unassisted | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Jenner C | 19:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.02 | +0.32 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Zach Werenski D | 24:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.09 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 17:41 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:30 | +0.11 | +0.22 | −0.26 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 14:57 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 13:59 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| James Malatesta L | 11:43 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Angle C | 9:38 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 20:53 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:50 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Meyer R | 10:19 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:29 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 18:40 | −0.23 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:14 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 15:29 | −0.25 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:52 | −0.29 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:45 | −0.38 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 17:52 | −0.51 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:59 | −2.04 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:18 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.09 | +0.85 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.28 | +0.30 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Doan R | 13:15 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.31 | +0.46 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:27 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 23:20 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 17:15 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Jack McBain C | 14:23 | +0.23 | +0.32 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 19:35 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:46 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 20:09 | +0.07 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 17:04 | +0.07 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 17:18 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 20:41 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 14:32 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:08 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 15:39 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:37 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:15 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +0.72 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.