WSH beat DET 4–3 in overtime. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Strome scored at 1:55 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alex Lyon allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:09 |  WSH | Nic Dowd from Nick Jensen, Beck Malenstyn | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:53 |  DET | Alex DeBrincat from Jeff Petry, J.T. Compher | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 19:17 | DET | David PerronPP from J.T. Compher, Dylan Larkin | 2–1 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 0:35 | WSH | Connor McMichael from T.J. Oshie, Martin Fehérváry | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 4:49 | WSH | Dylan Strome from John Carlson, Max Pacioretty | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 14:40 | DET | Patrick Kane from Alex DeBrincat | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 1:55 | WSH | Dylan Strome from John Carlson, Hendrix Lapierre | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.15 | +0.69 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 |
| David Perron L | 16:25 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.29 | +0.74 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 18:29 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.80 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:07 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 19:56 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 19:13 | +0.14 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 14:33 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 8:42 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 8:52 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 19:57 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.25 | −0.41 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:34 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 10:36 | −0.21 | +0.47 | −0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:41 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:00 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 13:26 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 15:04 | −0.42 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:36 | −0.43 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:47 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.08 | −0.77 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 61:55 | −1.57 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 22:14 | 2 | +1.76 | +0.39 | +1.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.28 | +0.81 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 19:18 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.15 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 13:00 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.31 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:27 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 15:52 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 11:12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:22 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 16:58 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 4:20 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 25:51 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 22:28 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 8:27 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 22:51 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:07 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 14:50 | −0.42 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 61:55 | +0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.