NYR beat PHI 6–5 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Fox scored at 0:36 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Ersson allowed 3.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:58 |  PHI | Scott Laughton from Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 11:39 | PHI | Ryan PoehlingPP from Scott Laughton, Egor Zamula | 2–0 | 70% → 85% |
| P2 15:28 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 1:23 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from Kaapo Kakko | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 2:57 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 6:45 | PHI | Travis Konecny unassisted | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 9:34 | NYR | Vincent TrocheckSH from Mika Zibanejad | 3–4 | 50% → 82% |
| P3 11:45 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Morgan Frost | 4–4 | 15% → 48% |
| P3 13:59 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin | 4–5 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 16:29 | PHI | Tyson Foerster unassisted | 5–5 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 0:36 | NYR | Adam Fox from Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:34 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.24 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 13:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.14 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Travis Konecny R | 18:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Poehling C | 20:10 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.04 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 17:28 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.02 | +0.49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 17:33 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ginning D | 12:44 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ronnie Attard D | 12:04 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:44 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 11:46 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:53 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 15:43 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 14:58 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 12:04 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 15:38 | −0.19 | +0.26 | −0.45 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olle Lycksell R | 10:32 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 27:21 | −0.37 | +0.13 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 60:36 | −3.77 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:27 | 2 | +1.36 | −0.04 | +1.41 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 8:56 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Adam Fox D | 24:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.08 | +0.64 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.11 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.09 |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.08 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Braden Schneider D | 22:21 | +0.16 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:19 | 3 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 18:12 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 11:54 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Rempe C | 6:52 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Scanlin D | 10:46 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 9:17 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:40 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 15:16 | −0.33 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 12:37 | −0.42 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 22:58 | −0.49 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:36 | −1.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.