BOS beat FLA 4–3. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pavel Zacha scored at 17:39 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 49% to 92%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:27 |  FLA | Evan Rodrigues from Aleksander Barkov, Vladimir Tarasenko | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:43 | BOS | Charlie McAvoy from Matt Grzelcyk, Pavel Zacha | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 18:56 | FLA | Sam Reinhart from Eetu Luostarinen, Dmitry Kulikov | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 15:59 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Charlie McAvoy | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 9:53 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Matthew Tkachuk | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 15:38 | BOS | Trent FredericPP from Brad Marchand, Jeremy Swayman | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 17:39 | BOS | Pavel Zacha from David Pastrnak, Parker Wotherspoon | 4–3 | 49% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:12 | 1 | 1 | +1.24 | +0.03 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Zacha C | 20:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.07 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 |
| Trent Frederic C | 12:58 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.06 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 22:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.09 | +0.56 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Peeke D | 17:14 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 17:39 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 15:29 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 11:25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 8:47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 8:57 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 14:58 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:19 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:25 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:31 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:27 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:27 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 20:56 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| John Beecher C | 9:30 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | −0.65 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:11 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.03 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:22 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:02 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.12 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 24:50 | +0.27 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:35 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:01 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 7:04 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 16:53 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 7:03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:18 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 17:12 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:00 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 26:15 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:26 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 10:53 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:03 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 9:46 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 14:00 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 57:45 | −1.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.