FLA beat PHI 4–1. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Reinhart scored at 10:34 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Anthony Stolarz saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:34 |  FLA | Sam Reinhart from Anton Lundell, Brandon Montour | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 0:55 | FLA | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P3 4:43 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour | 3–0 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 12:54 | PHI | Bobby BrinkPP from Ryan Poehling, Egor Zamula | 3–1 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 18:48 | FLA | Sam ReinhartEN from Eetu Luostarinen | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:19 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.04 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:23 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.20 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 19:28 | +0.40 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:15 | 2 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Joshua Mahura D | 14:23 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 20:05 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:58 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 17:58 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:36 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 16:59 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 9:09 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 25:04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 6:18 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:19 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 19:34 | 3 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:29 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:29 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 11:40 | −0.54 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 60:00 | +2.79 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Brink R | 15:20 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.03 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 9:59 | +0.40 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 23:16 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Ginning D | 10:29 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 10:30 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 19:55 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 18:02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:25 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:38 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 13:43 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 19:46 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:12 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 18:53 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Cam York D | 27:59 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ronnie Attard D | 15:03 | −0.26 | +0.20 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:13 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 17:06 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olle Lycksell R | 7:59 | −0.58 | +0.17 | −0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Sandstrom G | 57:37 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.